What Is Variance in Poker?

Let’s be honest — poker can feel like a rollercoaster. One day you’re stacking chips like a pro, the next you’re questioning all your life choices after a brutal downswing. Sound familiar? You’re not alone. The key to riding these ups and downs like a seasoned grinder is understanding what variance in poker actually is — and what it isn’t.

In this article, we’ll break down poker variance without the math degree, look at in-game examples, and explore how even great decisions can lead to losing sessions. No lectures — just clarity, a bit of strategy, and some much-needed peace of mind.

🧐 What Is Variance?

Variance in poker refers to the natural statistical fluctuations in your short- to mid-term results, even if you’re playing solid, winning poker. It’s the difference between what you expect to win (your expected value, or EV) and what you actually win in the short run.

Put simply:
Variance = randomness in outcomes over the short term.

Even if you’re a long-term winning player, variance can make your graph look like the Alps before it smooths out over time. It’s not a sign you’re doing something wrong — it’s just part of the game.

Let’s say…

• You go all-in with AA vs KK preflop.
• Mathematically, you’ll win about 81% of the time.
• But that 19% loss? It stings when it happens three times in a row.

Did you misplay the hand? Nope. That’s variance poker in action.

⚔️ Variance vs. Luck: What’s the Difference?

While people often confuse variance with luck, they’re not the same:

So yes, luck causes variance, but variance is a known, predictable element of the game over time. It’s baked into poker’s DNA — especially in no-limit hold’em, where chip stacks swing fast.

🕹️ Can We Control Variance?

Short answer: No.

But we can manage it. Here’s how smart players survive (and thrive) through variance:

1. Bankroll Management

Your seatbelt for the swings. A solid bankroll keeps you in the game when variance hits hard. If you’re underrolled, even a good run of cards can end in disaster. Play within your limits, so you don’t have to stress every flip.

2. Game Selection

A soft field can smooth variance over time. Don’t ego-battle regs — look for profitable games.

3. Volume, Volume, Volume

Variance evens out over the long run. You’ll never beat variance in a 10-session sample. Think in thousands of hands, not hundreds.

4. Review and Adjust

Just because you’re running bad doesn’t mean you’re playing well. Use tracking software, hand histories, and second opinions to spot leaks.

5. Emotional Control

Tilt turns variance into disaster. Meditation, breaks, and mindset work are part of the grind.

Variance in poker isn’t your enemy — it’s part of what makes poker. It’s the reason why worse players can win (sometimes), and why better players need discipline, not just skill. By understanding variance, you arm yourself with realistic expectations and long-term thinking — two things that separate sharks from the fish.

If you’re losing but making smart plays — hold steady. If you’re winning and feel unbeatable — be humble. In both cases, variance is whispering: “This too shall pass.”

💬 FAQ

Is variance bad in poker?

Not at all. It’s what creates opportunity. Without variance, bad players would never win, and good players would never get paid.

How long can variance last?

It varies. A downswing can last a few sessions or thousands of hands. That’s why volume and bankroll management are key.

How do I know if it’s variance or bad play?

If your decisions are +EV but you’re losing, it’s probably variance. Use tools like PokerTracker or review with friends to be sure.

Does variance affect cash games and tournaments equally?

No. MTTs have higher variance due to their structure. Cash games are more stable, but big pots still swing hard.