Ever found yourself asking, “Was that call profitable?” or “Should I have shoved instead?” Welcome to the world of EV — one of the most important concepts in poker strategy that separates guesswork from solid decision-making. If you’re serious about becoming a thinking player (and not just flipping coins), it’s time to understand what EV in poker really means.
🎯 What is EV (Expected Value) in Poker?
EV, or Expected Value, is a mathematical concept that tells us how profitable a decision is in the long run.
In poker, every move you make — bet, call, fold, bluff, raise — has an EV attached to it. That EV can be:
- Positive (+EV): This action will earn you money over time.
- Negative (–EV): This action will lose you money in the long run.
- Neutral (0 EV): Break-even decision. Not losing money, but not gaining either.
Let’s say you go all-in with pocket aces against someone who calls with 7-2 offsuit You might lose the hand now and then (bad beats happen), but your decision was +EV — because across thousands of similar hands, you’ll win way more often than not.
In short, EV in poker is the guiding star for profitable play. It helps cut through emotions, tilt, or “I had a feeling” guesses, and replaces them with clear-eyed logic.
📝 How to Calculate EV in Poker
Here’s the simplified EV formula:
EV = (Win% × Amount Won) – (Lose% × Amount Lost)
Let’s apply it to our river call example.
- Pot = $100
- Villain bets $50
- If you call and win, you win $100 + $50 = $150
- If you call and lose, you lose $50
- You estimate you’re good 30% of the time
Now plug it into the formula:
EV = (0.3 × 150) – (0.7 × 50)
EV = 45 – 35 = +$10
This call has a +$10 expected value. It’s a +EV play, even if you lose this particular hand.
☝️ Why EV Matters (Even If You Don’t Like Math)
Poker is a game of incomplete information and short-term variance. That’s why judging success by who “won the pot” is misleading.
Here’s the mindset shift that separates amateurs from regs:
Stop thinking: “Did I win?”
Start thinking: “Was my decision +EV?”
This is especially crucial in soft fields, where opponents make consistent –EV decisions. Your goal isn’t to win every hand — it’s to make better decisions, more often, than your opponents. EV helps you do exactly that.
🔎 FAQ
What is EV in poker, in one sentence?
EV (Expected Value) is the average amount you expect to win or lose from a play if you made it an infinite number of times.
Is it possible to win a hand but make a -EV play?
Yes! You can win the pot but still have made a bad call in terms of long-term profitability.
Can EV be used in live games without software?
Absolutely. It’s about estimating probabilities and outcomes. Even rough mental EV estimation is better than none.
Do all pros use EV?
Yes. Some may not say it aloud every hand, but +EV thinking is baked into high-level poker.
Is EV only for cash games?
No. It’s essential in both tournaments and cash games, although tournament EV can be more complex due to ICM and payout structures.